Demand Planner

Description

Demand Planner

The Estée Lauder Companies | Dubai, UAE

Function: Supply Chain

Scope: Middle East Affiliate

Reports to: Supply Chain Director

About the Role

We are looking for an analytical and collaborative Demand Planner to develop accurate, unbiased forecasts for a portfolio of beauty brands across the Middle East.

Based in Dubai, you will combine statistical forecasting, market insights and business intelligence to build a consensus demand forecast. Working closely with Brand teams, Distributors, Finance and Regional Demand Planning, you will translate business assumptions into demand plans that support commercial, financial and supply chain decisions.

Key Responsibilities

Demand Forecasting and Analysis

• Develop and maintain an accurate, unbiased demand forecast over a 18-month horizon for assigned brands.
• Responsible with Middle East Market, 11 Countries.
• Connect with assigned distributors monthly to review forecasts, orders, inventory, sell-out trends and upcoming business requirements.
• Drive forecast commitment and ensure distributor inputs are received on time.
• Challenge distributor assumptions and close significant gaps between forecast, orders and actual consumption.
• Use statistical forecasts as a baseline, incorporating market intelligence, commercial insights and business assumptions.
• Analyze historical sales, trends, seasonality and promotional activity to understand demand drivers.
• Identify and communicate changes in demand, highlighting key risks, opportunities and forecast assumptions.

New Product Forecasting

• Develop new product forecasts in collaboration with Brand teams and Regional Demand Planning.
• Use historical launch performance and comparable products to assess initial demand, replenishment patterns and potential cannibalization.
• Conduct pre- and post-launch analysis to refine assumptions and improve future launch forecasts.
• Maintain the New Product Launch Tracker to provide visibility of launch forecasts and performance.

Consensus Forecasting and IBP

• Lead demand planning discussions within the Commercial, Distributor and Brand teams for assigned brands.
• Work with stakeholders to challenge assumptions, assess the business outlook and agree a consensus forecast.
• Reconcile demand forecasts with the latest sales estimates, explaining gaps and assessing alternative scenarios.
• Collaborate with Supply Management, Customer Service, Distributors and Brand teams to understand availability constraints and their implications for demand forecasts.

Forecast Accuracy and Continuous Improvement

• Monitor Weighted Forecast Accuracy (WFA), identify the causes of forecast variances and lead improvement actions.
• Review forecast performance and share insights that strengthen planning decisions.
• Identify opportunities to improve demand planning processes, reporting and data quality.

Qualifications

What You Will Bring

• A university degree or equivalent professional qualification.
• 3–5 years of experience in Supply Chain, preferably within demand planning, forecasting or a related analytical role.
• Strong analytical skills, with the ability to interpret data, identify trends and turn insights into clear recommendations.
• Intermediate to advanced Excel skills, with confidence working with large datasets, formulas, pivot tables and reporting tools.
• Strong communication and stakeholder management skills, including the confidence to challenge assumptions constructively.
• Good attention to detail and the ability to manage multiple priorities across a brand portfolio.
• Fluency in English.

Preferred qualifications and experience:

• Experience in beauty, FMCG, consumer goods or a related industry.
• Experience using SAP APO or other ERP and statistical forecasting systems.
• Demand planning training or certification.